Dangote Refinery’s $3.74bn Crude Imports Expose Nigeria’s Oil Supply Paradox

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported crude oil worth $3.74 billion in 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report has revealed.

The figure, specifically listed as “Crude oil imports of $3.74bn by Dangote Refinery,” highlights a major shift in the country’s external trade even as Nigeria remains Africa’s top crude producer.

NaijaChoice News analysis of the CBN data shows this import wave contributed directly to movements in the nation’s current account position last year.

Crude oil exports meanwhile dropped sharply from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, a 14.41 per cent decline. The fall further pressured the external balance amid lower global prices and production challenges.

Yet the refinery delivered clear gains on the domestic front. Availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote slashed fuel imports from $14.06 billion in 2024 to $10.00 billion last year, a steep 28.88 per cent reduction.

The CBN noted that the refinery also exported refined petroleum products worth $5.85 billion, helping lift gas exports and supporting other segments of the economy.

Total oil-related imports eased, but non-oil imports rose from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.60 per cent, as demand for foreign goods stayed strong.

Despite these shifts, the goods account stayed in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, up from $13.17 billion the previous year.

Nigeria’s overall current account recorded a surplus of $14.04 billion, down from $19.03 billion in 2024 but well above the $6.42 billion posted in 2023. The CBN linked the moderation partly to structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for local refining.

Pressure mounted from other fronts. Net outflows for services climbed to $14.58 billion from $13.36 billion, driven by higher spending on transport, travel and insurance.

Primary income outflows surged 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion due to bigger dividend and interest payments to foreign investors. Secondary income inflows dipped slightly to $23.20 billion from $24.88 billion.

Separately, Nigeria spent N5.734 trillion on crude imports between January and December 2025 as domestic refineries battled persistent feedstock shortages.

This heavy reliance persists despite the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy, introduced to channel local supply to refiners and ease forex demand. Industry sources confirm Dangote receives only about five cargoes monthly from NNPC under the deal, far short of the 13 cargoes needed for full operations.

The shortfall forces continued imports, exposing gaps in upstream supply obligations.

Analysts say the refinery’s growing output is already easing fuel queues and cutting import bills, yet the crude paradox remains a key test for Nigeria’s energy security.

The CBN report underscores that Dangote’s operations are reshaping trade patterns, turning the country from pure exporter to a refining hub with both challenges and fresh opportunities for the economy.