Poverty Rate Hits 63% as Tinubu Reforms Deepen Hardship for Millions

A fresh policy study by Agora Policy, backed by the Nigeria Economic Stability and Transformation (NEST) programme and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), has laid bare the devastating impact of the ongoing economic reforms on ordinary Nigerians.

The research, presented at a stakeholder dialogue in Abuja on March 12, 2026, shows the national poverty headcount surging from 49.8 per cent before the petrol subsidy removal and electricity tariff hikes to roughly 63 per cent afterwards – before any slight moderation from limited social protection measures. This spike, as echoed in public commentary, aligns with broader concerns that the reforms have driven poverty levels far beyond pre-2023 baselines, pushing the figure cited in some analyses from around 40 per cent to over 63 per cent today.

With Nigeria’s population now exceeding 220 million – and estimates reaching 240 million by mid-2026 – this translates to well over 140 million citizens trapped below the poverty line. Families across the country can no longer afford basic necessities like food, transportation, rent or healthcare. The average cost of a healthy meal has skyrocketed from N515 in June 2023 to N1,611 by July 2025, while intercity bus fares jumped from N4,000 to N7,700 and average rent climbed from N1.79 million to N4.50 million over the same period.

Focus group discussions conducted across all six geopolitical zones paint a heartbreaking picture of daily survival. Households are cutting food portions, trekking long distances instead of paying for transport, rationing electricity to the barest minimum, and borrowing heavily just to keep going. Small and medium enterprises – the lifeblood of Nigeria’s economy – are shutting down in droves or downsizing staff as operating costs from higher fuel and power prices bite hard. Many have resorted to alternative energy sources or price hikes that further squeeze consumers.

An economy cannot be described as improving when the majority of its people sink deeper into poverty. Yet, while citizens tighten their belts and watch their businesses collapse, reports of lavish spending and non-essential comforts at the highest levels of government continue to fuel public anger. Leadership demands sacrifice from the top, not feasting while the people fast.

The Agora Policy study acknowledges that the reforms have strengthened certain fiscal indicators – external reserves rose from $35.09 billion in May 2023 to $50.45 billion by February 2026 and government revenue has improved. However, the short-term shocks have been severe, with household consumption declining sharply, especially among low-income and rural groups. Social transfers offered only limited cushioning due to delays and small scale.

True economic reform must be people-centred. It must shield the vulnerable while chasing fiscal sustainability. Reforms that deepen poverty, widen inequality and crush small businesses cannot be called successful. Nigeria is blessed with abundant human and natural resources. What the nation urgently needs is leadership that puts prudence, compassion and accountability first – leadership that measures success by the wellbeing of the ordinary citizen, not by elite comfort.

Stakeholders at the dialogue, including representatives from the Central Bank of Nigeria, the World Bank and the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, called for expanded social protection, stronger support for SMEs, and better use of subsidy savings for infrastructure and human capital.