Tinubu’s Abacha Tactics Against Opposition – Farooq Kperogi

Lagos – March 21, 2026 – Nigeria’s major opposition parties are battling severe internal crises that political watchers say could leave President Bola Ahmed Tinubu with a smoother path to reelection in 2027. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), and African Democratic Congress (ADC) have all seen leadership disputes, court cases, and defections that have weakened their structures.

The PDP remains badly split. Factional fights have dragged on for months, with court rulings nullifying conventions and deepening divisions. FCT Minister Nyesom Wike, who holds a key position in the Tinubu administration despite his PDP roots, continues to wield influence that many party members blame for the ongoing turmoil.

Wike’s camp insists on holding a national convention, but reconciliation talks have stalled. Some PDP voices openly accuse him of working against the party’s interests.

The Labour Party has fared no better. Internal rows have seen factions clash over leadership and direction. Former presidential candidate Peter Obi has distanced himself from parts of the party and joined broader opposition coalitions.

Obi has publicly claimed that the federal government is aiding efforts to destabilise the Labour Party. The party now risks losing coherence as key figures look elsewhere for platforms.

The ADC, once viewed as a possible home for politicians leaving PDP and LP, is caught in its own leadership battle. Senator David Mark’s position as national chairman faces challenges from Hon. Nafiu Bala Gombe. Recent Appeal Court decisions have dismissed Mark’s appeals and fuelled uncertainty.

These developments have left prominent opposition figures like Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and others searching for stable platforms. Without unified parties, mounting a serious challenge becomes harder.

President Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) shows no such cracks. The party endorsed him early for 2027, and support groups are already touring the country and mobilising votes, especially in key regions like the South-west.

Tinubu has denied any role in engineering opposition defections or crises. Yet the pattern of opposition disarray has prompted some commentators to warn about risks to democratic competition.

Economic hardship across the country has also made many voters more open to financial inducements during elections. With the ruling party controlling significant resources, this tilts the field further.

Institutions like INEC and the judiciary face public doubts over independence, though perceptions vary. These factors combined raise questions about the quality of the contest ahead.